Statins are a widely prescribed class of medication that lower cholesterol in the blood. They are intended to help prevent heart disease.

Prescriptions for statins may soon plummet — from 45.4 million to 28.3 million — research gathered at the University of Pittsburgh suggests. The reason? A recent study supports using different guidelines to measure the risk for heart disease.

The older equations used to predict a person's likelihood of heart trouble have been widely criticized over the years as overestimating the risk of heart disease.

The research compared the results from a new heart disease risk calculator called PREVENT with guidelines that were originally developed in 2013. The older equations have been widely criticized over the years as overestimating the risk of heart disease.

The new study, which analyzed data from nearly 3800 adults between the ages of 40 to 75, used a different assessment tool specifically designed to be more accurate. It drew on billing and electronic data from the health records of a more diverse real-world population and incorporated current statin use.

Among the other changes included in PREVENT's current assessment are:

  • Race has been removed from the calculation and replaced with zip code data
  • Risk factors such as kidney disease, obesity and a marker of poor blood sugar control have been included in the assessment
  • Men and women's heart risk have been calculated separately

“The prior risk equations and the PREVENT equations that we focus on in this study really seek to give doctors and patients sort of a starting percentage to say, is it worth having a conversation about statins?” lead author, Timothy Anderson, a primary care physician and an assistant professor of medicine at University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, explained. “When we're seeing risk rates cut in half, I think that really is something that's likely to impact how doctors and patients talk about these meds.”

While new guidelines are being developed, patients should not take it upon themselves to stop taking their statin medication without talking to their healthcare provider.

Anderson stressed that the biggest risk factor of heart disease is age. “If you're at borderline risk now, you're likely to be higher risk in five years. And that's a complicated set of conversations for primary care doctors and patients to have.”

With the changes in risk factors there will also need to be new guidelines. While those are being developed, medical experts caution that patients should not take it upon themselves to stop taking their statin medication without talking to their healthcare provider.

Heart disease remains the leading cause of death for both men and women in the United States. According to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) regardless of whether you're taking statins or not, there are steps you can take to maintain a heart-healthy lifestyle. They include:

The study is published in JAMA Internal Medicine.